I would once again like to advocate Stumble Upon
for anyone who drinks water and breathes air. Regardless of what your interests are, this thing will find stuff in the massive noise of the internet that you will find interesting.
Has anyone in waterloo been to the Goodlife(tm) there and can advocate that it's just SO good that it's worth paying money for, as opposed to the various ways of free excersise(sp) that i'm entitled to?
Yegads, Christmas is in 5 days. I need to do some shopping.
Someone was talking about "Let's Make a Deal"(tm), the other day, and I realized that I have a better explaination about why it's better to switch than the one I previously provided.
In LMAD, you get to choose one of three doors. One of the doors has a car, or something like that behind it, and the other two have things you don't want, like a goat (And I don't care if you really want a goat, that's not the point). Now, after you pick a door, the host will open one of the other doors to reveal a goat, and you have the opportunity to switch the door you picked to the other, unopened door. The theory is that you should always switch. Here's why:
There are only three scenarios, so we can list them (there are actually six, but I'll assume that you don't care which goat is which). G for goat, C for car.
The Doors can be as follows:
C G G
G C G
G G C
Now, lets say you always pick door 1 first (it doesn't matter which you pick first).
Lets start with the sitch where you don't switch doors. In this case, you will
win the car only in scenario 1, where the car is actually behind door 1. That
means you have a 1/3 chance of winning.
If, on the other hand you always switch, since the host will only open a door containing a goat, the only scenario in which you will NOT win is scenario 1. In scenario 2, host will open door 3, and you switch to door 2, winning. In scenario 3 he'll open door 2, you switch to door 3, and win.
So your odds of winning are actually 2 in 3 if you switch, but only 1 in 3 if you don't (and not 50/50 as previously advertised).
Clearly i'm bored at work.

1 Comments:
ooooooooooh. I totally get it now.
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